Share input, ideas for getting Oregon back on track to meet climate targets

The Transformational Integrated Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction (TIGHGER) Project aims to assess Oregon’s progress toward meeting the greenhouse gas emission reduction goals established in Executive Order 20–04, specifically the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by45 percent below 1990 levels by 2035 and 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.

The first iteration of the TIGHGER project, finalized in 2023 but incorporating data through2018, found that the state had the program and policy infrastructure in place to meet its 2035 goal. In late 2025, the Oregon Department of Energy updated the forecast with data through 2023, taking into consideration the programs and policies in effect at the time of the analysis and changes to the energy landscape, for example actual and projected increases in load growth(primarily from data centers). This forecast – under the “Business–As–Planned” scenario – found that Oregon does not currently have the programs and policies in place to meet either its 2035 or 2050 goals.

This document details a draft list of gap actions or measures, as well as scenarios, that ODOE intends to quantify in its modeling as part of the TIGHGER 2.0 project. The draft gap measures identified in this document are potentially new, or enhancements of existing, programs and policies which, if implemented and funded, could lead to quantifiable greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Again, these measures are either not currently being implemented or propose greater levels of regulation, efficiency, or clean energy deployment through existing programs.

The gap measures are not intended to prescribe program design elements or an implementation pathway. For many of the measures, there could be multiple ways of achieving the quantified greenhouse gas emission reductions. For example, a grant program could incentivize the adoption of a clean energy technology, while a statutory or regulatory change could require the adoption of that technology over a prescribed period. ODOE is modeling the greenhouse gas emissions reductions that could be achieved if the measure were implemented, not suggesting how that implementation should take place.

The four draft scenarios presented below reflect potential changes to the baseline Business–As–Usual and Business–As–Planned scenarios which, if realized, would lead to different results in Oregon’s forecasted greenhouse gas emissions reductions. The scenarios are intended to reflect the risks associated with certain greenhouse gas emission reduction initiatives and uncertainty with respect to future energy growth. The scenarios are likely to demonstrate the importance of existing programs in meeting Oregon’s greenhouse gas emissions reductions goals, and the consequent need for Oregon to adopt new measures or develop higher standards for existing programs if the scenarios are realized.

The gap measures and scenarios were developed through consultation with state interagency partners, sectoral subject matter experts, and ODOE’s consultant and modeling expert, Sustainable Solutions Group, and are intended to be responsive to feedback received during Phase 1 of the TIGHGHER 2.0 project in 2025. ODOE welcomes comments on the gap measures and scenarios listed below. Finalization of the assumptions and modeling of the greenhouse gas emissions reduction amounts associated with the gap measures and scenarios is expected to occur in April 2026 after taking into account public comments. The following are questions for consideration, but ODOE welcomes comments on any aspect of the information presented below.

• Are there measures listed below that you think would be particularly important to model to quantify potential greenhouse gas emissions reductions? Are there particular assumptions ODOE should consider for that measure?
• Are there additional measures that ODOE should consider modeling to quantify potential greenhouse gas emissions reductions? If so, are there particular assumptions ODOE should consider for that measure?
• Are there additional scenarios that ODOE should consider modeling? If so, are there particular assumptions ODOE should consider for that scenario?

Please submit comments to OCAC@energy.oregon.gov no later than 5 p.m. on March 27, 2026.